Presidential polling – Iowa

Research 2000, Iowa, 12/18-12/20, MoE +/-5%, 400 Democratic Caucus Voters:

Obama 22%
Edwards 22%
Vilsack 12%
Clinton 10%
Gore 7%
Kerry 5%
Clark 4%
Kucinich 4%
Bayh 1%
Richardson 1%
Biden 1%
Undecided 11%

ARG, Dec. 19-23, MoE +/-4%, 600 likely Democratic Caucus goers (528 Democrats, 72 no party)

Clinton 31%
Edwards 20%
Vilsack 17%
Obama 10%
Kucinich 5%
Dodd 2%
Kerry 2%
Biden 2%
Gravel 1%
Clark 1%
Richardson 1%
Undecided 8%

Can anyone make any sense of this? These polls were conducted around the same time. OK, side by side comparison time.

Candidates in R2K but not ARG poll:
Gore, Bayh (total 8%)

Candidates in ARG but not R2K:
Dodd, Gravel (total 3%)

Edwards avg: 21%
Clinton avg: 20.5%
Obama avg: 16%
Vilsack avg: 14%
Kucinich avg: 4.5%
Kerry avg: 3.5%
Clark avg: 2.5%
Biden avg: 1.5%
Richardson avg: 1%
Undecided avg: 9.5%

They say that averages are more meaningful than individual polls, but seriously, wtf? There’s a 21 point difference in Hillary’s numbers. The average is outside the MoE for both polls. There’s a 12 point difference in Obama’s numbers. Both are cases of 4th vs. 1st (or tied for 1st).

Oh, but the real cherry comes from R2K – Head to Head numbers!

Obama 42, McCain 39
Obama 43, Giuliani 38
Obama 43, Romney 28

Edwards 42, McCain 39
Edwards 42, Giuliani 38
Edwards 41, Romney 29

McCain 43, Clinton 37
Giuliani 39, Clinton 35
Clinton 40, Romney 30

Of course, the R2K poll seems rather unfavorable to Hillary, so maybe she could beat McCain and Giuliani in Iowa too. I have yet to see a poll demonstrating that, though.

On the GOP side, R2K has McCain by 1%, ARG has Giuliani by 2%.

Next Diary: Nevada (1 poll, ARG)

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